Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
